SPC MD 1341
MD 1341 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST WY INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL SD

Mesoscale Discussion 1341
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022

Areas affected...Extreme northeast WY into western/central SD

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 031949Z - 032145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm development is possible later this
afternoon, with a threat of very large hail and damaging wind gusts.
Watch issuance is likely.

DISCUSSION...At 1940Z, towering cumulus has developed across the
northern Black Hills vicinity, with other boundary-layer cumulus
gradually increasing across parts of far eastern WY into western SD.
In the short term, any storm development is likely to remain
isolated, due to lingering MLCINH, but continued
heating/destabilization ahead of a weak midlevel vorticity maximum
moving across eastern WY will likely support a greater coverage of
storms by late afternoon. 

Modest midlevel southwesterly flow will support sufficient effective
shear for storm organization later this afternoon into the evening,
especially where low-level flow remains somewhat backed to the north
of a differential heating/mixing boundary that is moving slowly
northward across southwest SD. A couple of supercells may eventually
develop with time, with moderate-to-strong buoyancy supporting an
initial threat of hail (possibly greater than 2 inches in diameter).
A conditional threat for a tornado or two will also be present with
any sustained supercell, given modest but sufficient low-level
shear. Isolated severe gusts will be also possible with any
supercell, with some potential for storm clustering and a greater
severe wind threat by early evening. 

In order to address these threats, Severe Thunderstorm Watch
issuance is likely later this afternoon, once a greater coverage of
severe thunderstorm development appears imminent.

..Dean/Grams.. 07/03/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON   43630095 43230211 43100323 43120374 43200406 43490431
            43820440 44130439 44760420 45400368 45710317 45600215
            45260118 44930081 44560067 44030063 43630095 

Read more
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1341.html