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Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

800 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022



For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:



1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:

An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles

south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce

disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions

are forecast to be favorable for some gradual development, and a

tropical depression is likely to form around the middle part of this

week. Further development will become less likely by the end of the

week due to increasing upper-level winds. The system is forecast to

move westward, then turn northwestward or northward by the end of

the week over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.



2. East of the Windward Islands:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located

several hundred miles east of the southern Windward Islands have

become slightly better organized since yesterday. Some further

development of the wave is possible, and a tropical depression

could form within the next few days while it moves generally

westward at 15 to 20 mph, reaching the Windward Islands and the

eastern Caribbean Sea by midweek. Interests in the Windward Islands

should monitor the progress of the system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.



Forecaster Hagen/Brown