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#681700
Thu 02 Feb 2023 12:47:AM
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Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,904
Launch Director
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OP
Launch Director
Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,904 |
SPC Feb 2, 2023 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective OutlookSPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook  Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CST Wed Feb 01 2023
Valid 020100Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States.
...01z Update...
Current water-vapor imagery depicts a weak upper low over northern Mexico, roughly 150 mi south of FHU. This positive-tilted feature will advance into far west TX as the 500-mb speed max translates across northern Mexico/southern tip of the Big Bend region by 02/12z. The majority of lightning, and it's currently quite isolated, is located in the cold-core region of this trough south of the international border. Downstream, weak elevated convection is noted within the warm conveyor from west TX into the Arklatex, though little lightning has been observed recently. Even so, 00z sounding from FWD exhibited a moist profile through 4 km with steep mid-level lapse rates. Lifting a parcel from this level yields around 150 J/kg MUCAPE, likely enough to warrant at least some lightning potential within the most robust updrafts.
..Darrow.. 02/02/2023
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html
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