Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Sun May 07 2023

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with isolated large hail and marginally
severe wind gusts will be possible on Tuesday in parts of the Great
Plains. A few storms with marginally severe wind gusts could also
develop in parts of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic.

...Southern and Central Plains...
Mid-level heights are forecast to rise across the Great Plains on
Tuesday, as an upper-level ridge builds northward across the
north-central states. At the surface, low pressure is forecast to
deepen in the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles with a slow moving front
extending eastward across southern Kansas into Ozarks. South of the
front, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will likely result in moderate
instability by afternoon. Although large-scale forcing will likely
remain weak across the region, thunderstorms should develop in the
vicinity of the front during the afternoon as surface temperatures
heat up and low-level convergence increases. Several strong to
severe storms appear likely, moving eastward across the southern and
central Plains during the late afternoon and evening.

Forecast soundings at 00Z/Wednesday in southern Kansas near the
front show moderate to strong instability, 0-6 km shear in the 40 to
50 knot range, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.0 C/km. This should
be favorable for supercells with large hail. Wind damage will also
be possible, associated with supercells and short line segments.
Although a severe threat appears somewhat conditional mainly due to
a midday capping inversion, the pristine thermodynamic environment
should be favorable for a severe threat in areas where convection
can initiate. The severe threat is expected to persist into the
early to mid evening, as low-level flow strengthens along and south
of the front.

...Northern and Central High Plains...
An upper-level ridge is forecast to build across the north-central
U.S. on Tuesday, as southwesterly flow remains in the mid-levels
over the western U.S. At the surface, surface dewpoints mostly in
the 50s F will be located across much of the northern Plains and
central High Plains. As surface temperatures warm during the day,
isolated to scattered convective initiation will be possible. The
most likely area for thunderstorm development will be in the higher
terrain of north-central Colorado, eastern Wyoming and western South
Dakota. Isolated thunderstorms appear likely to move eastward across
the High Plains during the late afternoon and evening. Although
large-scale ascent will remain relatively limited, enough deep-layer
shear is forecast for a severe threat. This combined with steep
lapse rates will make hail and marginally wind gusts possible with
the stronger cells.

...Carolinas...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move southeastward into the
Carolinas on Tuesday. At the surface, an associated low is forecast
to move into the mid Atlantic as a cold front advances southeastward
across the region. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front in the 60s
F, will probably result in the development of moderate instability
in many areas by midday. Convection that initiates in the vicinity
of the front will likely move southeastward toward the coastal areas
during the afternoon. Deep-layer shear should be strong enough for a
marginal severe threat. Isolated damaging wind gusts would be
possible along the leading edge of the more organized line segments,
especially as low-level lapse rates become steep in the mid
afternoon.

..Broyles.. 05/07/2023