SPC MD 840
MD 0840 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 231... FOR PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE...SOUTHWEST OK...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS

Mesoscale Discussion 0840
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 PM CDT Mon May 22 2023

Areas affected...portions of the TX Panhandle...southwest OK...and
western North Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 231...

Valid 222045Z - 222215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 231
continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue this
afternoon and into this evening. An initial threat for hail will
likely transition more to damaging winds as cells cluster later this
afternoon/evening.

DISCUSSION...As of 2040 UTC, regional radar analysis showed
scattered thunderstorms ongoing across portions of the TX Panhandle
and far southwestern OK within WW231. Over the last couple of hours,
storms have intensified with MRMS MESH showing cores supportive of
hail in the 1-2" range. While storms have predominately been
multi-cellular thus far, transient mid-level rotation has also been
noted with area VADs showing effective shear of 25-30 kt. The mixed
storm mode should continue this afternoon, with a threat for large
hail and isolated damaging wind gusts. Given the number of storms,
cells should gradually merge into one or more southeastward-moving
clusters as outflow consolidates, similar to what the latest HRRR
data suggests. A locally greater threat for damaging winds may then
evolve across portions of the southeastern Panhandle where
consolidating storms and stronger outflow may support some severe
gusts this evening.

..Lyons.. 05/22/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   33510197 34100202 34310193 34590171 34640166 35310111
            35490105 35630091 35660060 35389981 35239949 34639934
            33749952 33469992 33280024 33060124 33200182 33510197 

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https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0840.html