ABNT20 KNHC 010549


Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

200 AM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northeastern Gulf of Mexico (AL91):

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area over

the northeastern Gulf of Mexico have become a little more

concentrated during the past several hours. Environmental

conditions appear marginally favorable for some slow development

over the next day or so as the system meanders over the northeastern

or eastern Gulf of Mexico. However, by this weekend environmental

conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for additional

development as the system drifts southeastward towards the Florida

Peninsula. Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy

rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the Florida Peninsula

through this weekend. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft

is scheduled to investigate the system on later today, if

necessary. Additional information on the rainfall and flooding

potential can be found in products issued by your local National

Weather Service forecast office and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks

issued by the Weather Prediction Center.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which

will run until November 30. The long-term averages for the number of

named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 14, 7, and 3,


The list of names for 2023 is as follows:

Name Pronunciation Name Pronunciation



Arlene ar-LEEN Lee lee

Bret bret Margot MAR-go

Cindy SIN-dee Nigel NY-juhl

Don dahn Ophelia o-FEEL-ya

Emily EH-mih-lee Philippe fee-LEEP

Franklin FRANK-lin Rina REE-nuh

Gert ger Sean shawn

Harold HAIR-uld Tammy TAM-ee

Idalia ee-DAL-ya Vince vinss

Jose ho-Zay Whitney WHIT-nee

Katia KAH-tya

This product, the Tropical Weather Outlook, briefly describes

significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for

tropical cyclone formation during the next seven days. The issuance

times of this product are 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT. After the

change to standard time in November, the issuance times are 1 AM, 7

AM, 1 PM, and 7 PM EST.

A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide

updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances

of the Tropical Weather Outlook. Special Tropical Weather Outlooks

will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regular

Tropical Weather Outlooks.

A standard package of products, consisting of the tropical cyclone

public advisory, the forecast/advisory, the cyclone discussion, and

a wind speed probability product, is issued every six hours for all

ongoing tropical cyclones. In addition, a special advisory package

may be issued at any time to advise of significant unexpected

changes or to modify watches or warnings.

NHC has the option to issue advisories, watches, and warnings for

disturbances that are not yet a tropical cyclone, but which pose the

threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to

land areas within 48 hours. For these land-threatening "potential

tropical cyclones", NHC will issue the full suite of advisory and

watch/warning products. Potential tropical cyclones share the

naming conventions currently in place for tropical depressions,

being numbered from a single list (e.g., "One", "Two", "Three",


The Tropical Cyclone Update is a brief statement to inform of

significant changes in a tropical cyclone, to post or cancel watches

or warnings, or to provide hourly position updates between

intermediate advisories when the storm center is easily followed by

radar. It is used in lieu of or to precede the issuance of a

special advisory package. Tropical Cyclone Updates, which can be

issued at any time, can be found under WMO header WTNT61-65 KNHC,

and under AWIPS header MIATCUAT1-5.

All NHC text and graphical products are available on the web at

https://www.hurricanes.gov. More information on NHC text and

graphical products can be found at

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NHC_Product_Description.pdf. New and

updated products for the 2023 season can be found at


You can also interact with NHC on Facebook at

https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC. Notifications are available via

Twitter when select National Hurricane Center products are issued.

Information about our Atlantic Twitter feed (@NHC_Atlantic) is

available at https://www.hurricanes.gov/twitter.php.


Forecaster Beven

Source: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook