000
WTPZ43 KNHC 192035
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132023
200 PM PDT Tue Sep 19 2023

SSMIS and GMI microwave overpasses from this morning around 13Z 
indicated that the cyclone was still quite disorganized. However, 
the satellite presentation has improved since that time. The earlier 
northeasterly to easterly shear appears to be abating. A 1714 UTC 
ASCAT-B pass confirms that the low-level center is underneath the 
central cold convective canopy and also shows tropical-storm-force 
winds up to 40 kt in the NW quadrant. Based on the ASCAT pass, the 
depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Kenneth with 40-kt winds.

Based on fixes over the past 6 hours, the center appears to have 
reformed a bit to the west. The estimated motion is 280/14. A 
west-northwestward motion is expected through Wednesday night as 
the cyclone is steered by the trade wind flow. After that time, a 
potent mid- to upper-level trough approaching from the northwest is 
expected to cause Kenneth to turn to the northwest or 
north-northwest. The track forecast was adjusted a bit faster and 
to the left of the previous NHC prediction, mainly due to the 
recent center reformation, which caused some of the simple 
consensus models to be farther west this cycle.

The intensity forecast has been adjusted upward based on the higher 
initial intensity. Warm ocean temperatures, light northeasterly to 
easterly vertical wind shear, and a moist low to mid-level 
troposphere currently surround the tropical cyclone. The system has 
perhaps 36 hours to strengthen while it remains in these relatively 
favorable environmental conditions. The cyclone is forecast to cross 
the 26C SST isotherm in about 48 h. The aforementioned approaching 
mid- to upper-level trough will induce strong southwesterly vertical 
wind shear on the cyclone beginning by 60 h.  After that time, much 
drier air along with further decreasing ocean temperatures and 
increasing wind shear will lead to the cyclone losing its convection 
and becoming a remnant low in about 3 to 4 days. Global models show 
the system opening up into a trough by Day 5. Given the hostile 
conditions the cyclone will be moving into, the NHC forecast follows 
suit and calls for dissipation by Day 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/2100Z 15.1N 121.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 15.4N 122.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 15.9N 124.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 16.4N 125.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  21/1800Z 17.4N 126.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  22/0600Z 19.0N 127.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  22/1800Z 20.4N 127.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  23/1800Z 22.3N 128.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen/Pasch