Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm activity will likely persist across parts of the
southern/central Plains toward the Mid-MS Valley through Day 6/Sat.
This activity will be aided by a prevailing moderate southwesterly
flow regime as a large-scale trough slowly digs across the western
U.S. while a pronounced upper ridge is maintained across the
Southeast and Atlantic coast.

A weakening upper shortwave trough over the southern Plains will
lift northeast across the Mid-MS Valley to the upper Great Lakes on
Day 4/Thu. This may focus some low-end potential for a few strong
storms. However, destabilization is likely to remain limited due to
widespread cloudiness and precipitation. By Days 5-6/Fri-Sat, a cold
front will sag southeast across parts of the northern/central Plains
into the Upper Midwest. Meanwhile stronger lee cyclogenesis is
possible over the central/southern High plains as the western trough
begins to shift east. This may support some potential for strong
storms across the southern Plains vicinity by Day 6/Sat, but how
much destabilization can occur and overlap with favorable shear and
strong ascent remains too uncertain to include probabilities. 

By the end of the period, the western upper trough will spread east
into the Plains and a strong cold front will surge east across the
central CONUS, limiting severe potential as boundary-layer moisture
become confined to the Gulf Coast states.