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#703971
Sun 19 Nov 2023 12:17:AM
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Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903
Launch Director
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OP
Launch Director
Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903 |
SPC Nov 19, 2023 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective OutlookSPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook  Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0613 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2023
Valid 190100Z - 191200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight.
...Discussion... A large scale upper trough over the West will be the primary focus for a few thunderstorms through tonight, with a lead wave moving from NM into the southern Plains, and a strong feature into the Great Basin.
Isolated convection now over NM is expected to increase in coverage late tonight from the TX Panhandle into parts of KS and OK, where elevated CAPE up to 500 J/kg is forecast. This elevated destabilization and lift will be aided by cooling aloft and increasing theta-e advection around 700 mb. Severe hail is not anticipated given weak CAPE values, despite favorable deep-layer shear to sustain a few cells.
Elsewhere, large-scale ascent will increase into the Great Basin overnight with cooling aloft and a cold front pushing across NV and toward western UT. MUCAPE on the order of 50-250 J/kg may yield sporadic lightning flashes.
..Jewell.. 11/19/2023
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html
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