Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0308 PM CST Mon Feb 26 2024

Valid 281200Z - 051200Z

Large-scale ridging aloft will overspread much of the central U.S.
during the middle/latter portions of the week. A southern stream
shortwave trough is forecast to eject out of northern Mexico into
the southern  Plains late Wednesday into Thursday. By early
Saturday, a potent upper-level trough will dig into the southwestern
U.S. and make quick progress through the Southwest into the southern
Plains by Sunday. Strong surface cyclones can be expected in the
Plains in association with this upper-level system.

...Southern High Plains...
The focus for potentially critical fire weather continues to be
focused on the southern High Plains as the next trough approaches
the region this coming weekend. Models continue general agreement on
the timing and structure of this large-scale feature. Confidence in
critical fire weather has increased on Saturday and a 40% area has
been added. Sunday continues to appear like the peak intensity of
the event. Continued model convergence does suggest that higher
probabilities may be needed in the coming days. At this time, there
is still enough potential for the timing and/or latitudinal position
of the trough to change that confidence in properly placing any
increased probabilities is limited. Further, a leading southern
stream shortwave trough may produce precipitation in parts of the
southern High Plains on Thursday. While amounts may remain minimal
to light for some areas, given some remaining dry air near the
surface, this also adds to the overall uncertainty.

..Wendt.. 02/26/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...