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#721187
Mon 29 Apr 2024 07:56:PM
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Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903
Launch Director
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OP
Launch Director
Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903 |
SPC Apr 29, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective OutlookSPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024
Valid 292000Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...SOUTH TEXAS...AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MI...
...SUMMARY... Marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today across south Texas, the lower Mississippi Valley and southeast Lower Michigan.
...20Z Update... Overall forecast reasoning remains unchanged. Only adjustment to the previous outlook was to trim behind the line in southern MS.
Ongoing line across southwest IN will likely continue eastward/northeastward. Widespread clouds have limited heating downstream across IN and OH, which has limited buoyancy as well. This limited buoyancy should temper the overall severe potential, although a damaging gust or two is possible if storms briefly intensify.
..Mosier.. 04/29/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024/
...LA/MS/AL... A decaying linear MCS is moving slowly southeastward across southern LA, with the most active part of the line well offshore. The leading outflow boundary extends northward across southeast LA into central MS, with a warm/moist low-level air mass in place to the east. Some rejuvenation of thunderstorms along this line is expected this afternoon, with storms tracking eastward toward southwest AL this evening. Mid-level lapse rates are weak in this area, along with weak to moderately strong low to mid-level wind fields. This suggests some risk of gusty or possibly damaging winds with these storms, but the threat is expected to remain rather isolated.
...Southeast Lower MI... Visible satellite imagery shows strong heating occurring over southeast Lower MI today, but with a broad area of clouds and light precipitation approaching from the southwest. Several morning CAM solutions show scattered afternoon thunderstorms developing along the leading edge of this cloud deck. Storms will sweep across the area rather quickly, with steepening low-level lapse rates posing a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out as well - especially along a surface boundary that extends across the Thumb area.
...South TX... A moist and moderately unstable air mass is present today across south TX, ahead of a weak front. The coverage of thunderstorms is expected to be quite limited today in this region, but any storm that forms could pose a risk of large hail for a few hours.
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_2000.html
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