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#724605
Wed 29 May 2024 07:28:AM
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Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903
Launch Director
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Launch Director
Joined: Feb 2001
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SPC May 29, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm OutlookSPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN...WESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY... One or two organized clusters of storms may evolve by Friday morning into afternoon and pose a risk for severe wind and hail continuing across parts of the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley and Texas Gulf coast by Friday evening.
...Synopsis... Downstream of a lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone forecast to elongate eastward from the northern Canadian Prairies toward western Hudson Bay, it appears that initially prominent mid-level ridging will become suppressed southeastward across Quebec and the lower Great Lakes region. Farther east, amplified mid-level troughing may slowly shift east of the Atlantic Seaboard, but models indicate that a seasonably dry/stable air mass will be maintained across most areas east of the Mississippi Valley through this period. Another surge of cooler and drier air may continue to slowly spread through the upper Mississippi Valley, mid Missouri Valley and central Great Plains.
In the southern mid-latitudes, generally weak zonal flow will prevail to the north of suppressed mid/upper ridging across the subtropics. This regime will include at least a couple of low-amplitude waves and perhaps one or two convectively generated perturbations.
...South Central U.S... The 29/00Z NAM, in particular, is suggestive of the development of a significant convective perturbation across and north of the Red River Valley vicinity by 12Z Friday. This may include the evolution of a prominent mesoscale convective vortex, which may be preceded by weakening convection, but trailed by strengthening warm advection driven thunderstorm activity near/northwest of the Wichita Falls vicinity. The NAM then suggests the renewed convective development will undergo significant ensuing intensification and organization, with another developing mesoscale convective vortex and intensifying rear inflow (including to in excess of 60-70+ kt in the 850-700 mb layer) through Friday afternoon across much of North Texas.
Other model output is considerably more vague, or displaced, with this potential (e.g., a less dramatic convective signal is evident in the 29/00Z ECMWF, farther to the south across central Texas toward middle Texas coastal areas). While there is considerable uncertainty due to these differences, it appears that the environment will be potentially conducive to this type evolution, as a seasonably moist boundary-layer becomes characterized by large CAPE (2000-4000 J/kg), beneath steep lapse rates associated with an eastward advecting plume of elevated mixed-layer air.
If/when it becomes clearer that sub-synoptic developments will evolve anywhere close to what the NAM suggests, severe probabilities may need to be increased in later outlooks for this period.
..Kerr.. 05/29/2024
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0730.html
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