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Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
510 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A special tropical weather outlook issued to update the
discussion of the low pressure system northeast of the Bahamas.

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Alberto, located inland over northeastern Mexico.

1. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92) Updated:
Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicates
that the small area of low pressure located about 150 miles
northeast of the northernmost Bahamas does not have a well-defined
surface circulation. Environmental conditions remain marginally
conducive for further development and this system could become a
tropical depression while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph. The system is expected to approach the northeastern coast
of Florida or the Georgia coast early on Friday. Another Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance mission is planned for Friday morning, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


2. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over southeastern
Mexico and northern Central America on Friday. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development after this
system moves over the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and a tropical
depression could form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this
weekend while it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.



Forecaster Bucci