SPC MD 1378
MD 1378 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IOWA

Mesoscale Discussion 1378
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0546 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Areas affected...North-central Missouri into south-central and
southeast Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 222246Z - 230045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong/severe storms may occur late this afternoon
into the evening. Damaging winds and isolated marginally severe hail
are the main threats. A severe thunderstorm watch is possible should
convective trends warrant.

DISCUSSION...Convective showers have been increasing along the cold
front and within weak convergence bands ahead of the front in
southern Iowa and northern Missouri. With the primary shortwave
trough farther to the the north, forcing for ascent will be more
nebulous. That said, storm coverage is not certain late this
afternoon into the evening. Temperatures have risen into the upper
80s/low 90s F and the airmass is quite moist (low 70s F dewpoints).
MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg and effective shear of around 35 kts will
be sufficient for organized strong to severe storms. Damaging winds
will be the main threat with isolated marginally severe hail
possible as well. A severe thunderstorm watch is possible late this
afternoon, but issuance will depend on convective coverage.

..Wendt/Gleason.. 06/22/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   41769289 41509207 40839178 40119216 39759260 39619362
            39969442 40549469 40639471 41549375 41769289 

Read more
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1378.html