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#726923
Mon 24 Jun 2024 05:30:PM
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Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903
Launch Director
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OP
Launch Director
Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903 |
SPC Jun 24, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective OutlookSPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central Great Plains and Midwest, mainly during from late afternoon and evening. Damaging winds, large hail, and a tornado or two may occur.
...Central/southern Great Plains into parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes... Overall forecast confidence for the most likely outcome tomorrow is low with large spread in potential scenarios remaining evident. How MCS activity evolves later today into tonight will strongly modulate tomorrow's potential risk. Despite the uncertainty, the general trend is for expansion of level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks south/westward in parts of the Great Plains to Mid-MS Valley region where confidence in storm coverage during the late afternoon and evening is relatively higher than across the Great Lakes.
An MCS or remnants of one should be ongoing Tuesday morning in the central to southern Great Lakes vicinity. At least an isolated severe threat may accompany this convection, but an overall weakening trend is expected in mid to late morning. Meanwhile, the cold front that moves through the Dakotas/MN today will take on a more west-to-east orientation from parts of central to eastern NE the northern IL vicinity by tomorrow afternoon, with potential for one or more outflow boundaries to the south of this front. Strong to locally extreme buoyancy (with MLCAPE above 4000 J/kg) will likely develop near/south of the front, in areas that are not overly influenced by morning convection.
Outside the influence of any MCVs, mid-level west-northwesterly flow will be decreasing with southern extent across the warm-moist sector. It should still be adequate for multicell clustering and upscale growth with south-southeast moving cold pools. It is possible that some areas of ongoing morning convection will intensify around midday into the afternoon. More probable scenario is for widely scattered storm development along the primary front and any remnant outflow boundaries, centered over the Mid-MO to Mid-MS Valleys. Isolated high-based convection may also develop within a hot and well-mixed regime across the higher plains from western KS into the eastern TX Panhandle.
The favorable thermodynamic environment will support large hail potential with potential for discrete supercells, along the NE/IA portion of the front. Very large hail is most probable along the western flank of this development amid moderate west-northwesterly mid/upper flow. Clustering/upscale growth will probably occur within multiple separate regimes, which should result in two or more corridors of greater damaging-wind potential. Some severe threat could eventually spread into parts of the Ohio Valley, Ozarks, and possibly the southern Plains, though the southern extent of the organized severe risk remains rather uncertain.
Further outlook adjustments may be required in later outlook cycles, depending on evolution of D1 convection and potentially greater predictability across guidance.
..Grams.. 06/24/2024
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.html
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