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#726924
Mon 24 Jun 2024 07:20:PM
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Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903
Launch Director
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OP
Launch Director
Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903 |
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather OutlookSPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The previous forecast remains on track. Recent high-res ensemble guidance continues to suggest the potential for elevated fire weather conditions across northwest NV into southern/southeast OR; however, increasing mid/high-level cloud cover should modulate diurnal RH reductions across this region. Thunderstorm development remains probable across the western to central Great Basin late Tuesday into early Wednesday as a plume of 1.0+ inch PWAT values (already noted in GOES imagery over southern CA) migrates northward ahead of an approaching mid-level wave. While some dilution of this moisture is expected over the next 24 hours, model solutions and forecast soundings suggest that most thunderstorms should produce wetting rainfall. Consequently, confidence in the dry lightning threat remains limited.
..Moore.. 06/24/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024/
...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build into the Great Basin and extend into the Northwest on Tuesday. Overall, mid-level winds will be weaker across these areas than on previous days. There is some potential for subtle shortwave troughs within the flow to enhance winds in parts of northwest Nevada and southeast Oregon. An upper-level trough will approach the Northwest late in the period. The surface pressure pattern will be rather nebulous for much of the day. A surface low will deepen within the Columbia Basin vicinity, but this will primarily occur during the evening/overnight. At this time, only locally elevated fire weather conditions are expected from parts of northern Nevada into southeast Oregon and southern Idaho.
A plume of mid-level moisture will push farther north and west as well. A weak shortwave trough is expected to promote thunderstorms along the Sierra Front in Nevada. The areas where confidence in storm coverage is highest will see an increase in PWAT values to near/over an inch. Drier storms could occur farther east in an area where mid-level moisture is less, but confidence in coverage is also much lower.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html
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