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#728082
Wed 03 Jul 2024 02:46:AM
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Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903
Launch Director
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OP
Launch Director
Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903 |
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 03 2024
000
FONT12 KNHC 030246
PWSAT2
HURRICANE BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024
0300 UTC WED JUL 03 2024
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
130 KTS...150 MPH...240 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13)
MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 13(26)
GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8)
TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9)
FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 2(28) X(28)
MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 43(46) 25(71) X(71) X(71)
COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 21(33) X(33) X(33)
COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) X(13) X(13)
BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 9(16) X(16) X(16)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GUANAJA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 22(28) 4(32) X(32) X(32)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X 1( 1) 20(21) 8(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30)
ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X 4( 4) 7(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
CAMAGUEY 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 12(12) 80(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
GRAND CAYMAN 50 X 1( 1) 58(59) 2(61) X(61) X(61) X(61)
GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) 31(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32)
MONTEGO BAY 34 5 94(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MONTEGO BAY 50 1 77(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79)
MONTEGO BAY 64 X 41(41) 2(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)
KINGSTON 34 67 33(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
KINGSTON 50 5 90(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95)
KINGSTON 64 1 72(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73)
LES CAYES 34 94 X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94)
LES CAYES 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 35 1(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36)
CAPE BEATA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Source: Hurricane Beryl Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
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