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#730464
Thu 01 Aug 2024 01:00:AM
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Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903
Launch Director
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OP
Launch Director
Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903 |
SPC MD 1776MD 1776 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1776 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024
Areas affected...Southeast South Dakota...Far Southwest Minnesota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 312356Z - 010200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...A severe threat may develop over part of southeastern South Dakota over the next couple of hours. The severe threat may also impact far southwest Minnesota later this evening. Large hail, damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat will be possible with the stronger storms.
DISCUSSION...Over the last hour, mosaic radar imagery shows the development of isolated strong storms about 50 to 60 statute miles to the southwest of Sioux Falls. The storms are located to the southwest of a pocket of extreme instability, where the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 4000 to 5500 J/kg range. In addition to the instability, the storms are being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a northern Plains shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery. Short-term model forecasts including the HRRR, suggest that the storms will grow upscale into a larger convective cluster, moving into southwestern Minnesota later this evening. The instability, combined with moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates (shown by the RAP), suggest that supercell formation will be possible. Supercells will likely be associated with large hail and isolated severe wind gusts. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. A transition to a more linear structure will be possible as low-level flow increases, especially if a cold pool can organize.
..Broyles/Smith.. 07/31/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...
LAT...LON 43269577 43009676 42999757 43019841 43049881 43109909 43209921 43269929 43469936 43649931 43879910 44189864 44429798 44709677 44549553 43759509 43269577
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1776.html
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