SPC MD 1954
MD 1954 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 637... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA

Mesoscale Discussion 1954
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0958 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

Areas affected...Portions of southern Arkansas into northern
Louisiana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 637...

Valid 190258Z - 190430Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 637
continues.

SUMMARY...An organized line of convection, though becoming
increasingly elevated, will produce occasional wind damage in
southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana. A downstream watch is not
anticipate tonight.

DISCUSSION...Cold cloud tops are evident on IR satellite imagery in
central Arkansas. Convection has maintained some intensity despite
moving into outflow from earlier convection. The observed Little
Rock 00Z sounding showed stable low-level conditions, but steep
lapse rates aloft and ample elevated buoyancy. Farther south, when
modifying the observed 00Z Shreveport sounding, MLCIN has been
increasing with time. Given the organization of the line and the
elevated buoyancy in the region, a few downdrafts may be able to
overcome low-level inhibition and produce isolated wind damage
tonight.  Overall convective/observational trends suggest that a new
watch into parts of northern Louisiana is not likely.

..Wendt.. 08/19/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   34189441 34339371 34629220 34549168 33359183 32349231
            32279347 32899437 34189441 

Read more
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1954.html