Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0456 PM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024

Valid 061200Z - 121200Z

High pressure will continue to build in across the western US
D3/Friday through D4/Saturday, with a warming and drying trend.
Thunderstorm activity will be minimal across the Southwest as
Monsoonal moisture has gradually shifted southward. Temperatures
across the west will climb to above normal, but winds will remain
mostly light where fuels are the driest in the west. The
aforementioned hot, dry, unstable conditions will lead to some
increase in fire behavior. 

A return of isolated dry thunderstorm activity is expected beginning
late D3/Friday and D4/Saturday across northern California into the
Pacific Northwest as a trough approaches from the Pacific and
precipitable water values steadily increase. Isolated dry thunder
probabilities were included on D3/Friday across the Sierra into
western Nevada and into south-central Oregon and northward into the
Cascade Range in Oregon and Washington on D4/Saturday, where signal
for thunderstorms is highest in multiple deterministic runs.
Monsoonal moisture will slowly begin to return northward across the
Southwest by D5/Sunday-D8/Wednesday. A few areas of isolated dry
thunderstorms will be possible across northern Arizona into southern
Utah. Fuels within this region remain seasonably wet with recent
rainfall and as such no areas have been included at this time.
Further warming and drying is expected through the early extended
and status of fuels will be reevaluated for future outlooks.

The Pacific trough will deepen and move inland by D6/Monday-D8
/Wednesday, bringing enhanced westerly flow across northern
California, the Pacific Northwest, and into the Great Basin. This
will lead to potential Elevated to Critical conditions, particularly
on D7/Tuesday and D8/Wednesday. For now, confidence remains too low
to include areas based on model agreement, fuels, and potential
rainfall.

..Thornton.. 09/04/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...