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#735163
Sun 08 Sep 2024 08:57:PM
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Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903
Launch Director
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OP
Launch Director
Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903 |
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 08 2024
000
FONT11 KNHC 082057
PWSAT1
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024
2100 UTC SUN SEP 08 2024
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)
BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8)
JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8)
HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 5(20) X(20)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12)
MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) X(13)
ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11)
LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) 1(16)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) X(16)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 33(37) 5(42) X(42)
GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 3(14) X(14)
GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6)
FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) X(13)
LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 9(19) X(19)
CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 13(44) 1(45)
CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) X(14)
CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) X(12)
KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 7(17) 1(18)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 8(21) X(21)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 39(42) 6(48) 1(49)
GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) X(14)
GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 5(16) X(16)
FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 3(29) X(29)
FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 49(58) 3(61) X(61)
GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 2(26) X(26)
GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 7(27) X(27)
HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 37(43) 2(45) 1(46)
MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13)
MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 34(42) 1(43) 1(44)
PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11)
PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) 1(21) X(21)
CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 1(16) X(16)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 27(30) 34(64) 1(65) X(65)
GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 21(26) X(26) X(26)
GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11)
HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 9(25) X(25) X(25)
BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) 9(34) X(34) X(34)
BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 9( 9) 32(41) 22(63) 4(67) X(67) 1(68)
GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) 4(23) X(23) X(23)
GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
LA PESCA MX 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10)
TAMPICO MX 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5)
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
Source: Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
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