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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

#737668 Sun 15 Sep 2024 08:57:PM

Joined: Feb 2001

Posts: 381,904

Los Angeles, USA

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Webmaster

Launch Director

Joined: Feb 2001

Posts: 381,904

Los Angeles, USA

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024



000
FONT13 KNHC 152057
PWSAT3
                                                                    
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082024               
2100 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT WAS LOCATED 
NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM         
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
DANVILLE VA    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  2   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  1  17(18)   4(22)   1(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   5( 5)   3( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  1   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  5   7(12)   X(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  7   8(15)   X(15)   X(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
SURF CITY NC   34 16  15(31)   1(32)   X(32)   1(33)   X(33)   X(33)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34 16  15(31)   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34 40  18(58)   X(58)   1(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  7  36(43)   7(50)   X(50)   1(51)   X(51)   X(51)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X  17(17)   5(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34 38  29(67)   2(69)   1(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
LITTLE RIVER   50  X   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34 45  28(73)   2(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X  10(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
MYRTLE BEACH   64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34 48  28(76)   2(78)   X(78)   1(79)   X(79)   X(79)
GEORGETOWN SC  50  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34 27  27(54)   2(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   7( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
CHARLESTON SC  64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34  7  15(22)   2(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
KINGS BAY GA   34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MAYPORT NS FL  34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH