SPC MD 2121
MD 2121 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 683...685... FOR MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA

Mesoscale Discussion 2121
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0602 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Areas affected...Much of the Florida Peninsula and far southern
Georgia

Concerning...Tornado Watch 683...685...

Valid 262302Z - 270030Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 683, 685 continues.

SUMMARY...The tornado threat across much of the Florida Peninsula
and southern Georgia will continue well into the evening hours. A
replacement tornado watch will be needed soon.

DISCUSSION...The latest satellite, lightning, and radar imagery
associated with Helene, and its extrapolation, continue to suggest
the potential for several more bands of low-topped thunderstorms
extending over much of the FL Peninsula and far southern GA through
tonight. Increasing low-level flow associated with Helene remains
apparent on the TBW VWP, with a slow increase of around 5-10 kt of
shear observed in the lowest 1 km over the past hour. Although
buoyancy will slowly decrease overnight, the aforementioned shear
will yield 0-1 km SRH around 400-700 m2/s2 for several hours within
all eastern quadrants of Helene. Brief tornadoes are expected within
this zone of substantial, increasing low-level shear as far north as
the eastern FL Panhandle. A new tornado watch will likely be issued
within the next hour.

..Barnes/Gleason.. 09/26/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   26358186 26408217 27508271 28008289 28828268 29228296
            29878364 30308469 30998466 31658321 31648210 31198152
            29758092 27218083 26358186 

Read more
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2121.html