Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0406 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Valid 281200Z - 041200Z

Along the northern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone
centered over the Four Corners vicinity, a midlevel trough --
accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow -- will track
eastward from the Pacific Northwest across the northern Plains/Upper
MS Valley through Day 6/Tuesday. Thereafter, an additional midlevel
trough will advance eastward across the Northwest.

On Day 4/Sunday, strong westerly flow accompanying the midlevel
trough will cross the Northwest, promoting locally dry/windy
conditions along/east of the Cascades. While this could favor
elevated to perhaps locally critical fire-weather conditions, cool
post-frontal surface temperatures limits confidence in the overlap
of strong winds and warm/dry conditions. Farther east, lee troughing
over the High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions over the
central Rockies and Plains. Similarly, confidence in the overlap of
the strongest winds and low RH is currently too low to add Critical
probabilities at this time.

By Day 5/Monday, a swath of strong post-frontal surface winds will
overspread the northern/central Plains, with an associated increase
in fire-weather concerns where fuels are dry. 40-percent Critical
probabilities have been added where confidence is highest in the
overlap of strong winds and low RH.

Thereafter, the strong westerly flow aloft across the northern CONUS
could support additional fire-weather concerns -- especially across
portions of the central Rockies/Plains. However, the details are
unclear at this time.

..Weinman.. 09/26/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...