Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0311 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

Valid 151200Z - 211200Z

Fire weather concerns are anticipated across parts of the country
through the extended period - particularly across portions of the
Northeast and southern California coast where active wildfires have
been noted over the past several days. Long-range ensemble guidance
depicts an active upper-level regime through the middle of next
week, characterized by the passage of highly amplified upper waves
across the country. Widespread precipitation chances will accompany
these waves with recent ensemble guidance suggesting most locations
will see at least some chance for wetting precipitation over the
next week. Two exceptions to this are the New England region and
southern CA/lower CO River Valley where rain chances are minimal
during the D3-8 period. Despite seasonal temperatures, continued
rain shortfalls should promote drying fuels. 

...D3/Fri to Sun/D5 - New England...
The passage of a cold front late D2/Thursday into D3/Friday will
establish an offshore flow regime along the New England coast. Cool,
but dry, continental air filtering into the region should promote
diurnal RH reductions into the 30-40% range (though possibly as low
as 25% for some locations). Although winds are not expected to be
overly strong given a gradually weakening pressure gradient,
somewhat breezy conditions coupled with the drying trend and
receptive fuels will promote fire concerns for the late week and
into the weekend. 

...D3/Fri - Arizona/New Mexico...
An amplifying upper trough across the West Coast will support
widespread pressure falls across the greater Four Corners with an
attendant mass response across AZ and NM. Latest deterministic and
ensemble guidance show strong signals for 15-25% RH and 20-30 mph
southwest winds across eastern AZ into west/southwest NM where
10-hour fuels remain dry after several days of limited rainfall.
While ERCs remain somewhat low (generally below the 60th
percentile), drying of fine fuels through the remainder of the week
should support a fire concern. 

...D7/Tue to D8/Wed - Southern California...
Long-range ensemble guidance has begun to show a signal for an
offshore flow event during the early/middle part of the upcoming
work week. Both the GEFS and ECENS show reasonably good agreement in
an unseasonably strong (1040-1045 mb) surface high building across
the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies in the wake of a strong
upper trough. This signal suggests that offshore pressure gradients
may be sufficiently strong to support critical wind speeds off the
terrain of the southern CA coast. Given antecedent receptive fuels
(as evident by ongoing large fires) and the anticipated downslope
warming/drying, critical fire weather conditions appear possible
during the D7/Tue to D8/Wed period.

..Moore.. 11/13/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...