Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

Valid 182000Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO FAR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the eastern Gulf Coast
vicinity today through tonight, and pose some risk for locally
damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two.

...20z Update...
The primary change for this forecast update is a slight
east/northeast expansion of the 2% tornado/5% wind probability lines
into north/northeast FL and parts of far southeast GA. This
adjustment was driven mainly by trends in recent guidance, which
show very strong low-level shear developing later tonight/early
Sunday morning (0-1 bulk shear values on the order of 30-40 knots)
with minimally sufficient buoyancy (lifted indices between -2 to -4)
spreading further east towards the Atlantic coast compared to
previous runs. While storm mode and overall buoyancy concerns will
remain limiting factors, the environment should be supportive for at
least some tornado/damaging wind threat. See the previous discussion
below for additional details.

..Moore.. 01/18/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025/

...FL Panhandle into Southern GA...
Current regional radar imagery shows showers ongoing from far
southwest GA into the western FL Panhandle, along an axis of weak
pre-frontal confluence within the warm sector. Lightning has not
been observed within these showers thus far, but deepening
convective cores suggests some sporadic strikes are possible soon.
Much of this activity is along and north of a warm front that
extends roughly from MGM (in central AL) southeastward to TLH before
arcing back eastward then northeastward across northern FL. Given
that the ongoing activity is progressing eastward/east-northeastward
ahead of this warm front, downstream buoyancy will remain minimal,
with no severe threat anticipated. 

The airmass across the region is expected to continue modifying in
the wake of these storms, with the low/mid 60s dewpoints that are
currently offshore moving northward into the region during the
afternoon and evening. The cold front will likely remain west of the
region until late tonight/early tomorrow morning, but increasing
ascent attendant an approaching shortwave trough coupled with modest
destabilization and persistent warm-air advection should support
another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening. Despite the increasing low-level moisture,
overall buoyancy will remain modest, mitigated by a thermally
neutral boundary layer and relatively warm mid-levels. Even so, the
strong vertical shear that is already in place (i.e. 0-6 km bulk
shear over 70 kt) is expected to persist, supporting the potential
for some organization within any deeper, more sustained updrafts. As
a result, an isolated strong storm or two is possible later today
(mainly this afternoon and evening) with a risk of gusty/damaging
winds or a tornado.

The development of a more coherent line is likely as the front moves
through. Buoyancy will remain a mitigating factor, with the highest
values remaining close to the coast where the higher warmer
temperatures and dewpoints will be in place. The vertical shear will
remain very strong, compensating somewhat for the lower buoyancy and
potentially supporting a continued risk for damaging gusts and maybe
even a tornado or two through the FL Big Bend region early tomorrow
morning.