Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025

Valid 101200Z - 161200Z

A mid-level trough will amplify across the western CONUS early next
week, with a more progressive pattern encouraging the passage of
multiple mid-level troughs across the CONUS through the remainder of
the week to next weekend. Multiple instances of surface cyclone
development are possible across the southern High Plains into Lower
Mississippi Valley next week, supporting multiple days of dry
downslope flow, particularly Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday). A cold
front will sweep across the southern Plains during the middle of
next week, promoting relatively quiescent fire weather conditions up
to the weekend.

...Days 3-5 - Southern New Mexico into far western Texas...
Surface lee troughing will promote dry and windy conditions across
southern New Mexico into extreme western Texas Days 3-4
(Monday-Tuesday). While sustained westerly surface winds may exceed
20+ mph on a widespread basins each afternoon, model guidance still
differs somewhat regarding minimum RH. Some members show widespread
minimum RH around 15 percent while other members show widespread
20-25 percent RH, with lower RH on a more localized basis. As such,
40 percent Critical probabilities have been maintained. 

Surface cyclone development is likely across the southern High
Plains on Day 5 (Wednesday), which will encourage stronger, drier
westerly surface flow across far western Texas during the afternoon
compared to previous days. Medium-range guidance consensus shows
sustained 25-30 mph westerly winds coinciding with 10-15 percent RH
during the afternoon. Given preceding warm and dry days, with an
ongoing exceptional drought and no forecast precipitation, fine
fuels should support rapid wildfire spread, warranting the
introduction of 70 percent Critical probabilities.

..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...