Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN IOWA AND FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible during the
overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from eastern Nebraska
across much of Iowa.

...Eastern Nebraska/Iowa/Far Northwest Missouri...
A trough at mid-levels, will move quickly eastward into the Rockies
on Tuesday, and into the High Plains Tuesday night. Near the trough,
thunderstorm development will likely take place in the Four Corners
region Tuesday afternoon. Ahead of the trough, a surface low will
deepen over the central Plains, as a narrow corridor of low-level
moisture develops from eastern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and
northwest Missouri. The low is forecast to move through northeast
Kansas overnight, with low-level convergence becoming concentrated
from the surface low northeastward along a warm front into southern
Iowa. After midnight, thunderstorm development will be possible
along and north of the front. RAP forecast soundings just to the
north of the boundary at 06Z/Wednesday show a steep surface
inversion below 800 mb. MUCAPE is forecast to reach the 750 to 1000
J/kg range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates of the 8 to 9 C/km.
Effective shear on the north side of the boundary is forecast to be
in the 30 to 40 knot range. This environment could be sufficient for
an isolated large hail threat, associated with elevated rotating
storms, mainly in the 06Z to 12Z timeframe.

..Broyles.. 03/17/2025