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Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,904
Launch Director
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OP
Launch Director
Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,904 |
SPC Mar 17, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective OutlookSPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook  Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN IOWA AND FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from eastern Nebraska across much of Iowa.
...Eastern Nebraska/Iowa/Far Northwest Missouri... A trough at mid-levels, will move quickly eastward into the Rockies on Tuesday, and into the High Plains Tuesday night. Near the trough, thunderstorm development will likely take place in the Four Corners region Tuesday afternoon. Ahead of the trough, a surface low will deepen over the central Plains, as a narrow corridor of low-level moisture develops from eastern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and northwest Missouri. The low is forecast to move through northeast Kansas overnight, with low-level convergence becoming concentrated from the surface low northeastward along a warm front into southern Iowa. After midnight, thunderstorm development will be possible along and north of the front. RAP forecast soundings just to the north of the boundary at 06Z/Wednesday show a steep surface inversion below 800 mb. MUCAPE is forecast to reach the 750 to 1000 J/kg range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates of the 8 to 9 C/km. Effective shear on the north side of the boundary is forecast to be in the 30 to 40 knot range. This environment could be sufficient for an isolated large hail threat, associated with elevated rotating storms, mainly in the 06Z to 12Z timeframe.
..Broyles.. 03/17/2025
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0600.html
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