Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...

...Synopsis...
Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected today
across a broad swath of the southern and central Plains. More
localized fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the
Florida Peninsula. 

...Southern to central Plains...
Early-morning water-vapor imagery shows upper ridging shifting east
towards the central CONUS with strong zonal flow over the northern
Rockies. This upper flow regime has been promoting steady lee
troughing along the northern and central High Plains over the past
12 hours, with further deepening to around 1000 mb expected through
the day as a surface cyclone emerges across the northern Plains and
a secondary lee cyclone develops in eastern CO. The anomalously
strong surface low (surface pressures are expected to approach the
10th percentile for mid-March in the Plains) juxtaposed with a
surface high across the Southeast will induce a robust low-level
mass response with widespread 15-25 mph winds from TX to the MO
River Valley. 05 UTC observations already show a southerly flow
regime becoming established across TX and OK, but a recent frontal
intrusion into the Gulf has shunted quality moisture well offshore.
Consequently, a dry return flow regime is expected across much of
the southern to central Plains. 

Guidance continues to show high confidence in widespread 20-25
sustained winds across a broad swath of the southern and central
Plains. A corridor of 30-40 mph gusts appears likely from central TX
through central/northeast OK into eastern KS and western MO. The
meager moisture return coupled with diurnal heating and some degree
of downslope warming/drying along the High Plains will result in
widespread RH reductions into the single digits and low teens across
eastern CO/NM and western TX/OK and into the low to mid 20s further
north and east. Fuels across much of the central and south-central
CONUS are considered supportive of fire spread based on either
recent fire activity, high ERC values, or steady drying over the
past 24-48 hours over areas that received rainfall late last week.
Consequently, fire weather concerns are expected across a broad
swath of the Plains. A regional minimum in wind speeds is likely
across parts of northeastern CO into adjacent parts of KS and NE in
close proximity to the surface low, but periods of breezy conditions
and warm/dry conditions will still support some fire concern.
Confidence in long-duration critical conditions is highest from
eastern NM into western TX and western/central OK.

...Florida...
Recent MRMS QPE shows that limited rain has fallen across parts of
the central FL peninsula after yesterday's frontal passage. In the
wake of this front, dry northerly winds are expected today as a
surface high migrates into the Southeast. A combination of
dry/breezy conditions (wind speeds between 15-20 mph) should promote
areas of elevated fire weather conditions over a region with ERC
values between the 70-90th percentile.

..Moore.. 03/17/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...