Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1055 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Valid 211700Z - 221200Z

...Update...
Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across east-central NM
later this afternoon, where sustained localized westerly downslope
winds up to 20 to 25 mph will combine with RH in the low teens. ERC
estimates and monthly percentiles across this region suggest fuels
are receptive to ignition and spread. Only subtle adjustments to the
forecast were made elsewhere, including a slight extension to the
southeast for the Elevated area within NE and far northwest KS.
Although widespread fuel conditions appear less receptive here,
persistent breezy northwest downslope flow will aid in drier
conditions/lower RH spreading into more of southwest NE this
afternoon. In addition, the Elevated area for central TX was nudged
slightly westward to account for some ongoing stronger southwesterly
flow (expected to continue through early this afternoon), and was
reduced across the TX panhandle where wind speeds should slowly
decrease throughout the day. For additional details, please see the
previous discussion below.

..Barnes/Williams.. 03/21/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0210 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025/

...Synopsis...
Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely this
afternoon and evening over parts of the central US. A shortwave
trough within northwesterly flow will move from the central Rockies
to the southern Plains. A weak surface low will shift eastward over
the Midwest as a cold front moves south into the Plains. Gusty winds
and low humidity are expected near the front, supporting widespread
fire-weather concerns amidst dry fuels.

...Southern Plains...
South of the surface low and ahead of the cold front, southerly flow
is forecast to intensify over much of the southern Plains and parts
of the central MS valley. Southerly gusts of 15-20 mph are likely
through peak heating.  The recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf
has shunted the majority of appreciable moisture well offshore with
low 30 dewpoints noted along the northwest Gulf coast. This will
support continued dry return flow, with afternoon RH values of
20-25%, colocated with the strong gusts. Widespread elevated to
locally critical fire-weather conditions appear likely over much of
the southern Plains and central MS Valley, given the dry fuels and
fire activity in recent days.

A more focused corridor of critical conditions is expected across
north-central Texas early this afternoon. Stronger surface winds are
expected along and behind the front with gusts of 20-25 mph likely.
Along with the stronger gusts, strong diurnal heating and the dry
return flow will favor lower RH below 20% atop dry fuels.

...Central High Plains...
Northwesterly downslope flow is likely over portions of the central
high Plains today and tonight as the upper trough and cold front
move south. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to be
fairly widespread behind the front from the NE Panhandle southward
into the High Plains. Downslope warming/drying should support RH
values in the 15-25% range and widespread wind gusts of 15-25 mph.
While area fuels are only partially supportive given recent
rainfall/snow, enough dryness exists to support sufficient
fire-weather risk to maintain the Elevated area.

...Florida...
Offshore flow is likely over much of the Southeast today as surface
high pressure builds over the central Gulf Coast. Northerly flow is
likely over the Peninsula with a relatively dry air mass. While
winds most of the day will be modest, occasional gusts of 10-15 mph
may overlap with RH values below 30% and areas of dry fuels. This
could support several hours of locally elevated fire-weather
concerns given recent fire activity and little rainfall.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...