Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...Appalachians...
An Elevated area has been added for areas near/east of the Blue
Ridge into parts of the Carolina Piedmont. Post-frontal downslope
flow will result in RH dropping to near critical thresholds, with
sustained wind speeds approaching 15 mph (with stronger gusts).
Light to locally moderate rainfall on D1/Tuesday may result in a
local minimum of threat across parts of central VA, within the
larger Elevated area. 

...New Mexico and vicinity...
A small southwestward expansion has been made to the Isolated Dry
Thunderstorm area, but otherwise the previous reasoning remains
valid. See the previous discussion below for more details.

..Dean.. 03/25/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/

...Synopsis...
Large-scale ridging will continue to amplify over the western US as
a subtle southern stream shortwave trough slides underneath the
ridge. Weak ascent will overspread parts of the Southwest as modest
moisture returns to the west. This may support isolated dry
thunderstorms atop dry fuels in parts of the Southwest.

...Parts of NM...
As the weak upper-level trough moves over the Southwest, modest
ascent and easterly upslope flow is expected to promote isolated to
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms from central NM to
western TX. At the western extent of the moist plume, PWAT values
less than 0.75 inches will overlap with sufficiently steep low and
mid-level lapse rates to support high-based storms with poor
precipitation efficiency. Dry lightning strikes appear likely over
very receptive fuels given the high-based nature of any convection
that forms. An Isolated Dry Thunder area has been added across
western and central NM where best overlap of thunderstorm potential
and dry fuels should exist for several hours Wed.

...Appalachians...
Another day of dry conditions is expected across the southern
Appalachians Wed. High pressure will gradually shift eastward with
downslope flow likely across parts of western VA and the Carolinas.
While surface winds may not be overly strong (generally less than 15
mph), isolated gusts near 20 mph are possible. In addition,
afternoon RH should fall below 25%. Model guidance shows
considerable spread regarding the spatial and temporal coverage of
any elevated fire weather conditions that may develop. A few hours
of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, but
uncertain.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...