Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MUCH OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
A broad area of strong to severe storms is expected along a frontal
zone from the ArkLaTex, Mid MS Valley to the OH/TN Valleys and the
Mid Atlantic. Damaging gusts and hail are the primary risks, though
a few tornadoes are possible.

...Synopsis...
An elongated frontal zone, stretching from the Red River, to the Mid
MS and OH Valleys and into the Mid Atlantic will serve as the
primary focus for severe storms Thursday and Thursday night. Broad
troughing and strong flow will support the potential for fairly wide
coverage of strong to severe storms over a broad area.

...Red River to the Mid MS Valley...
Along and south of the front, a rich low-level air mass (dewpoints
in the upper 60s to low 70s F) will be in place with ample buoyancy.
Strong shear will overspread a large area from eastern TX, across
southern AR and into the Mid MS Valley much of the day. Mid-level
lapse rates are not overly steep and capping is weak, with most
guidance showing a broad area of potential convective coverage from
continuous warm air advection through much of the period. Thus, it
seems likely that several clusters of storms, possibly supercells,
will likely develop near the front and gradually spread east
northeast through the afternoon and evening hours. Deep-layer winds
are strong indicating potential for hail, along with damaging gusts
given the potential for numerous storm interactions. The risk for
tornadoes is less clear, but given supercell wind profiles and
fairly sizable low-level hodographs, some threat will likely exist.

An additional severe risk is possible late Thursday into early
Friday as the upper-level pattern amplifies. Strongly meridional
flow will overspread the stalled front supporting a broad warm air
advection regime across the southern Plains. Ample elevated buoyancy
is expected overnight with a risk for hail and isolated damaging
winds across central and north TX into southeastern OK.

...OH/TN Valleys into the Mid Atlantic...
As the front sags southward and eventually stalls, strong mid-level
flow will gradually align with the frontal zone across the OH Valley
into the Mid Atlantic. While there remains considerable uncertainty
on the presence of convection along and north of the front,
plentiful moisture is likely to reside along and south of it.
Several embedded mid-level perturbations may provide enough ascent
for additional convective development through the day. Several
clusters of strong to severe storms are possible along the front
with a risk primarily for damaging winds, given the relatively poor
mid-level lapse rates and veered low-level flow. The northern and
eastward extent of the severe risk is low confidence, owing to model
differences regarding the location and convective coverage along the
stalled front.

..Lyons.. 04/01/2025