Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025

Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms will continue this evening across
the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic, with severe wind gusts
and large hail as the primary threats.

...Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a ridge along the Atlantic
Seaboard and a trough in the mid Missouri Valley. A plume of
mid-level moisture extends east-northeastward from the trough along
a fetch of west-southwesterly flow from the mid Mississippi Valley
into the Northeast. At the surface, a trough is located in the lee
of the Appalachians, with a cold front moving southeastward through
the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Ahead of the front, surface
dewpoints are mostly in the 50s F, and instability is weak with
MLCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range, analyzed by the RAP. Within
this pocket of weak instability, scattered severe storms are ongoing
from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia, and western Virginia. At
500 mb, a broad belt of 60 to 80 knots of flow is located across the
southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, which is contributing to
strong deep-layer shear. This shear combined with the weak
instability will continue to be favorable for a severe threat this
evening. The more intense discrete cells could be supercellular with
a potential for large hail. The stronger storms will also be capable
of producing wind damage. If a short bowing line segment can
organize, then the potential for severe wind gusts could
increase...see MCDs 451 and 452.

..Broyles.. 04/15/2025