000
WTPZ42 KNHC 090846
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022025
200 AM MST Mon Jun 09 2025
 
Barbara has become a bit better organized over the past 6 hours 
with a large central dense overcast and an increasing area of 
cloud tops in the -75C to -85C range.  The latest subjective Dvorak 
estimates from TAFB and SAB range from 55-65 kt, and the latest 
objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 46-68 kt.  
Based on the improved banding and cold cloud tops, as well as the 
persistence of this organization, the initial intensity is 
increased to 60 kt for this advisory.

There is some uncertainty in the initial position since there have 
been no recent available microwave passes, but the best motion 
estimate is west-northwestward, or 295 degrees at 10 kt.  The 
global models show a strong 500 mb ridge to the north of Barbara, 
which should help maintain Barbara on a general path toward the 
west-northwest for the next few days.  The GFS model continues 
to be the fastest and farthest left model.  The GFS appears to 
have a more realistic solution compared to the ECMWF, and was 
stronger at the initialization time.  The new NHC forecast is 
slightly faster and a bit to the left of the previous official 
forecast and is in fairly good agreement with an average of the 
simple and corrected consensus models.

Barbara only has about 12 more hours to strengthen before it starts 
moving into cooler waters.  This should be enough time for Barbara 
to strengthen to a hurricane.  The cooler water should cause 
weakening to begin tonight or on Tuesday.  The dynamical hurricane 
models and global models all show Barbara weakening below tropical 
storm strength by 48 hours, and the cyclone is likely to lose its 
convection and become a remnant low around that time.  The new NHC 
forecast shows a faster weakening and quicker dissipation than the 
previous official forecast since the dynamical guidance is now in 
good agreement on this scenario.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0900Z 16.9N 106.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 17.6N 107.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 18.8N 108.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 19.8N 109.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  11/0600Z 20.3N 110.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  11/1800Z 20.5N 111.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen