Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
On the large scale, a low-amplitude upper trough over the northern
Plains on Sunday/D4 will amplify as it moves toward the upper Great
Lakes into Monday/D5, and more so into Tuesday/D6 when it will
stretch across into the Northeast.

At the surface, high pressure will extend into the northern to
central Plains on Sunday/D4, with a trough affecting the upper MS
Valley to central Plains. This trough/front will push farther south
on Monday/D5, extending roughly from the OH Valley into the southern
Plains, and eventually, into the Gulf Coast states into Wednesday/D7
as high pressure spreads into the MS Valley.

For the period, instability looks to be strongest on Sunday/D4 ahead
of the front from NE/KS into IA/MO/IL with upper 60s to lower 70s F
dewpoints common. While unstable, only weak westerly flow aloft will
be present, and this will likely result in south to southwest
propagating cluster of storms producing areas of gusty winds. Given
substantial storm coverage over much of the central Plains to
upper/middle MS Valley, predictability remains low for denoting
precise risk areas.

A low-end risk of severe storms with wind potential could develop
into the Mid Atlantic on Tuesday/D6 as the Great Lakes/Northeast
trough amplifies with westerlies increasing to 30 to perhaps 40 kt
at 500 mb. Otherwise, scattered storms will also occur away from
this boundary, across much of the Southeast as the moisture and
instability remain in place in a weak shear environment.