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Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,904
Launch Director
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OP
Launch Director
Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,904 |
SPC MD 1548MD 1548 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR THE NORTHEAST 
Mesoscale Discussion 1548 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025
Areas affected...the Northeast
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 031657Z - 031900Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail will be possible as initially isolated storms increase across parts of the Northeast. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is likely.
DISCUSSION...Initial sustained storm development is underway across southwest NY, with scattered agitated CU over northeast PA and southeast NY. A plume of moderate buoyancy will expand eastward from western/central PA and southwest NY, aiding in strengthening convective intensity as storms mature. A strong mid-level westerly jetlet atop already veered and weak low-level winds will yield hodograph elongation. Combined with weak low-level ascent, the setup should support generally semi-discrete cells with transient mid-level updraft rotation. As such, isolated severe hail will be possible and the overall coverage of the convective wind threat might be subdued until late-afternoon clustering becomes more probable.
..Grams/Mosier.. 07/03/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...
LAT...LON 42777681 42857547 43117355 42927285 42507218 42057209 41497245 40917352 40807456 41037586 41427685 42297745 42777681
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1548.html
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