Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated severe threat will be possible on Monday across parts of
the central and northern Plains, and in the northern Rockies.

...Central ad Northern Plains...
A mid-level ridge is forecast to move across the central Rockies on
Monday, as a trough remains in place from the upper Mississippi
Valley. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture is forecast
from eastern Nebraska northward into the eastern Dakotas. As surface
temperatures warm and instability increases during the day along and
near the moist axis, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop. More isolated cells may also form southwestward
into Nebraska, ahead of the central Plains ridge. Any severe threat
will likely be co-located with areas that have the strongest
instability. Forecast soundings in the late afternoon from southern
South Dakota into northern Nebraska have MLCAPE peaking in the 1500
to 3000 J/kg range, and have moderate deep-layer shear in place.
This would be sufficient for isolated severe gusts and hail.
However, the overall pattern will be diffuse, suggesting that any
severe threat the develops will remain localized.

...Northern Rockies...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move northeastward
across the northwestern U.S. on Monday, as flow remains
southwesterly over the northern Rockies. At the surface, upslope
flow should be in place over the northern High Plains extending
westward into the northern Rockies. As surface temperatures warm
during the day, scattered thunderstorm are expected to develop from
northern Idaho into western and central Montana. NAM forecast
soundings in western and central Montana by late afternoon have
MLCAPE peaking near 1200 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear of 40 to 50 knots.
This could support an isolated severe threat. Large surface
temperature-dewpoint spreads and nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates
from the surface to 700 mb should result in high-based storms
capable of isolated severe gusts. Hail will also be possible.

..Broyles.. 08/02/2025