Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6...
On Tuesday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to remain over the central
Rockies, as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the northern
Plains. Thunderstorm development will be possible near and ahead of
the trough across parts of the Dakotas during the afternoon and
evening. Model forecasts suggest that the environment will support
severe storms, mainly across western and central South Dakota where
an axis of instability and moderate deep-layer shear is forecast.
Isolated large hail and severe gusts are expected to be the primary
threats.

On Wednesday, the shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward into
the upper Mississippi Valley, outrunning the moist and unstable
airmass over the central and northern Plains. Isolated storms could
develop in the wake of the trough over parts of the region, but the
negative effects of a ridge aloft will likely keep any severe threat
localized.

The mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward into the upper
Mississippi Valley on Thursday, as flow become west-southwesterly in
its wake over the northern Plains. Strong instability could develop
across parts of the region, mainly due to surface dewpoints in the
70s F. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to remain weak in
most areas, a few storms with hail and isolated severe gusts could
develop in the afternoon and evening. 

...Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8...
On Friday, a mid-level shortwave ridge is forecast to move across
the north-central U.S., as a trough moves into the northern Rockies.
Strong instability is forecast to develop by afternoon across much
of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated
thunderstorms are expected across parts of the region as surface
temperatures become maximized in the mid to late afternoon. Although
a severe threat will be possible, the presence of the mid-level
ridge could be problematic for a greater severe threat.

On Saturday, a mid-level trough and an associated jet max, is
forecast to move eastward into the northern Plains. Thunderstorm
development will be possible ahead of the trough from the eastern
Dakotas into the upper Mississippi Valley. It appears that the
environment should support a severe threat due strong instability
and substantial deep-layer shear. However, the projected scenario
remains uncertain due to the extended range.