Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0803 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025

Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe gusts and large to very large hail will be
possible this afternoon through this evening from parts of the
northern Rockies into the Dakotas and central/southern High Plains.

...Northern Rockies vicinity...

An upper shortwave trough, now pivoting across ID will continue to
spread east tonight. An arc of strong to severe storms extending
across central and eastern MT is expected pose a severe wind/hail
risk the next few hours as convection develops north and east across
WW 573. Reference MCD 1887 for short term details. Further west
across ID and portions of western MT, the Marginal risk has been
removed as the main forcing shifts northeast while instability and
shear gradually decrease over the next couple of hours.

...Central/Southern High Plains...

Isolated cells will continue to pose a risk for large to very large
hail and severe/damaging gusts over the next several hours. An
increasing low-level jet this evening will sustain convection, and
may briefly increase the tornado risk this evening. Reference MCD
1888 for more short term details.

..Leitman.. 08/05/2025