Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025

Valid 061200Z - 121200Z

An upper-level ridge will continue to build into the Southwest
through at least D4/Thursday and remain quasi-stationary thereafter.
An upper-level trough will enter the Pacific Northwest by
D4/Thursday and traverse the Northern Rockies through D7/Saturday.

...Great Basin/Southwest/Rocky Mountains: Day 3/Wednesday - Day
5/Friday...
As enhanced upper-level flow overspreads the region, diurnally
driven heating/mixing will result in increasing potential for
critical fire-weather conditions each day, amid a dry antecedent
airmass and critically dry fuels. On D3/D4, 70% probabilities have
been confined to areas where sustained winds of 20-30 mph appear
probable, with D4/Thursday appearing to have the most widespread
potential in advance of an approaching cold front. On D5/Friday, 70%
probabilities were considered, but 40% have been maintained given
uncertainty among medium-rand guidance in the placement of the cold
front.

By D6/Saturday the cold front is expected to traverse the region,
though a small region of potential elevated to critical conditions
may remain ahead of the front. For now, have excluded the
introduction of 40% probabilities until details of the frontal
position become more certain.

Thereafter, generally weak flow aloft is expected, along with
hot/dry conditions, but given a lack of appreciable surface wind
speeds, potential appears too low to introduce probabilities for
D7/D8.

 ...Dry Thunderstorms...
Subtropical moisture beneath the upper-level ridge will continue to
build into portions of the Southwest, leading to increasing chances
for isolated dry thunderstorms. Therefore, 10% probabilities have
been introduced for portions northeast Arizona, northwest New
Mexico, and southwest Colorado on D3/Wednesday. For D4/Thursday and
beyond potential will exist for dry thunderstorm development across
a similar region and into peripheral areas, though the spatial
details remain too uncertain to introduce additional highlights.

..Karstens.. 08/04/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...