582 
WTNT44 KNHC 060856
TCDAT4
 
Tropical Storm Dexter Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042025
500 AM AST Wed Aug 06 2025
 
Dexter continues to have vigorous deep convection in the eastern 
portion of the circulation, partially obscuring its low-level 
center.  Observations from an earlier scatterometer pass had some 
rain-contaminated vectors between 40 to 42 kt.  Subjective and 
objective satellite intensity estimates have continued to generally 
rise overnight and have a wide range of 30 to 50 kt.  The initial 
intensity is set to 40 kt, in the middle of this range and closest 
to the UW-CIMSS DPRINT estimate.

The tropical storm is moving east-northeastward at 11 kt.  The track 
forecast reasoning has not changed.  Dexter should continue along 
the southern side of mid-level westerlies until interacting with a 
trough to the north in the next day or so.  The trough will likely 
accelerate Dexter to the east-northeast, though models have some 
along track spread.  The official track forecast is similar to the 
previous prediction and lies closest to the simple corrected 
consensus aids.   
 
Dexter has about another day or so as a tropical system.  It is 
currently experiencing strong vertical wind shear, which is only 
expected to increase during the next 24 to 48 h.  However, models 
continue to predict that the interaction with the trough to north in 
the next day or so should strengthen Dexter while it undergoes 
extratropical transition.  It should be noted that during the 
extratropical phase of the forecast, there is quite a bit of spread 
in the intensity guidance.  Several models during the 36 to 60 h 
time frame show the cyclone reaching hurricane-force.  The NHC 
intensity forecast has been raised to a peak of 60 kt at 48 h, very 
near the corrected consensus aid, HCCA.  There remains the 
possibility that upward adjustments in the intensity forecast could 
be need in future advisories.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0900Z 39.4N  59.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 39.8N  57.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  07/0600Z 40.6N  54.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  07/1800Z 41.9N  50.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  08/0600Z 43.2N  46.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  08/1800Z 44.5N  42.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  09/0600Z 45.2N  38.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  10/0600Z 46.0N  30.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci