847 
WTPZ43 KNHC 080253
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082025
500 PM HST Thu Aug 07 2025
 
Henriette’s satellite presentation has changed little since the 
previous advisory, with the low-level center remaining mostly 
exposed and only a few small, intermittent bursts of deep convection 
developing near the low-level center. The latest subjective Dvorak 
intensity estimate from TAFB was 2.5/35 kt, while objective 
estimates from UW-CIMSS have ranged from 28 to 41 kt over the past 
several hours. Taking a blend of these data, the initial intensity 
has been reduced to 35 kt for this advisory.

Henriette is moving westward, or 280 degrees at 14 kt. A turn 
toward the west-northwest is expected tonight, with this general 
motion expected to persist over the next couple of days as the 
cyclone tracks along the southwestern periphery of a subtropical 
ridge to its north. A turn toward the northwest is forecast this 
weekend and into early next week as Henriette becomes 
steered between an amplifying longwave trough northwest of Hawaii 
and the subtropical ridge to its northeast. The official track 
forecast remains in close agreement with the latest multi-model 
consensus aids and is essentially unchanged from the previous 
advisory.  Confidence remains high that Henriette will remain far 
to the north of Hawaii.

Henriette will traverse sea surface temperatures near 24C with 
mid-level relative humidity below 50 percent during the next 24 to 
36 hours. Despite these unfavorable thermodynamic conditions, the 
cyclone’s well-defined circulation is expected to remain fairly 
resilient within the prevailing low-shear environment, allowing for 
occasional pulses of deep convection to persist.  As a result, 
little change in intensity is anticipated in the short term.  If 
Henriette can withstand the period over cooler waters, as has been 
consistently indicated by the GFS and ECMWF models for several days 
now, re-intensification will likely occur over the weekend and into 
early next week as sea surface temperatures rise to levels conducive 
for strengthening. The official forecast continues to reflect 
intensification, bringing Henriette to hurricane strength by 96 
hours. The intensity forecast is on the higher end of the guidance 
envelope, and is most closely aligned with the dynamical intensity 
consensus HCCA.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0300Z 19.1N 138.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 19.6N 140.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 20.4N 143.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 21.6N 146.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  10/0000Z 22.9N 149.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  10/1200Z 24.4N 151.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  11/0000Z 26.2N 153.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  12/0000Z 30.2N 157.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  13/0000Z 34.8N 161.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)