Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GREAT
BASIN...

...Synopsis...
Dry thunderstorms will be the primary fire weather concern for today
across the northeastern Great Basin, though warm, dry, and windy
conditions will likely develop across parts of the Great Basin and
northern Rockies. A slight uptick in fire activity over the past 24
hours across the Great Basin and northern Rockies confirms that
receptive fuels remain in place across much of the region.

...Dry Thunderstorms...
Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a plume of mid-level
moisture across the Great Basin ahead of a migratory upper trough
moving into CA. This moisture plume supported isolated dry
thunderstorms yesterday across the region, and will similarly foster
100-500 J/kg MUCAPE from central NV northeastward into portions of
ID, WY, UT, and CO. Regional 00z soundings and recent GOES imagery
are sampling PWAT values between 0.3 to 0.6 inch, which when
combined with very dry boundary-layer conditions, will support dry
thunderstorms. A combination of ascent ahead of the approaching
wave, modest lift within the right-entrance region of a departing
upper jet, and orographic ascent will support isolated thunderstorms
across a broad swath of the region. Latest CAM guidance continues to
show the potential for several smaller corridors of concentrated
thunderstorms. Where exactly these corridors will emerge through the
afternoon remains somewhat uncertain, but the general consensus is
that areas of higher thunderstorm coverage are likely. The Isolated
dry thunderstorm risk area has been expanded to capture the
reasonable envelope of dry thunderstorm potential with receptive
fuels. Similarly, the Scattered dry thunderstorm risk area was
adjusted to highlight the most probable corridors of greater
thunderstorm coverage.

...Hot/Dry/Windy...
Very dry conditions will prevail across the Great Basin region with
another day of RH minimums in the single digits to low teens.
Surface pressure falls ahead of the approaching trough will promote
breezy conditions with sustained winds around 15 mph across much of
the eastern Great Basin into far western Colorado. Portions of the
Snake River Plain in eastern ID, as well as the eastern slopes of
the Bitterroot Mountains will see similar wind speeds within a
modest downslope flow regime. Gusts between 20-25 mph will support
transient critical fire weather conditions across both regions.

..Moore.. 08/14/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...