Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will continue into Friday across the Great
Basin and parts of the northern Rockies. The upper wave currently
moving into CA will gradually shift east into the Great Basin over
the next 48 hours. This will maintain a weak surface low over the
Intermountain West while also supporting a northward surge of deeper
monsoonal moisture from AZ into UT, CO, and parts of southern WY.
Dry conditions - both at the surface and aloft - will support
elevated fire weather conditions as well as dry thunderstorm
chances. Latest ensemble guidance suggests a corridor of 15-20 mph
winds will likely emerge from southern NV into western UT and
eastern ID. Several hours of elevated fire weather conditions are
probable as RH values fall into the 10-15% range by late afternoon. 

Similar to previous days, a combination of steep mid-level lapse
rates and modest mid-level moisture on the northwestern fringe of
the monsoonal surge will support a swath of 100-500 J/kg MUCAPE
across central NV into western WY. Dry boundary layer conditions
under the weak buoyancy coupled with 15-25 knot storm motions will
favor dry thunderstorms. Latest CAM guidance shows a reasonably
strong signal for convection, though coverage may be more limited
compared to previous days as stronger synoptic forcing for ascent
will likely remain displaced to the south/southeast. Regardless,
receptive fuels over the region will continue to yield a
lightning-driven fire weather concern.

..Moore.. 08/14/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...