000
FOPZ15 KNHC 020849
PWSEP5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152025               
0900 UTC THU OCT 02 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
10N 120W       34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
15N 120W       34  1   2( 3)   9(12)   3(15)   4(19)   9(28)  14(42)
15N 120W       50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   6( 9)
15N 120W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
20N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
10N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
15N 125W       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)  42(49)  14(63)   1(64)
15N 125W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   9(23)   X(23)
15N 125W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)
 
20N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)