000
WTPZ41 KNHC 060842
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Priscilla Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162025
200 AM MST Mon Oct 06 2025
 
Priscilla is gradually becoming better organized on satellite 
images over the past few hours.  There is a rather 
impressive-looking convective band wrapping around the western, 
southern and eastern portions of the circulation, with cloud 
tops to -80 deg C or colder in the band.  Cirrus cloud 
motions indicate that the upper-level outflow pattern is 
expanding at this time.  The advisory intensity estimate is set at 
75 kt based on a blend of subjective and objective intensity 
estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS.

The hurricane is moving a little west of north or 340/5 kt.  A more 
northwestward track with some acceleration is expected by later 
today as mid-level ridging becomes better established over Mexico.  
There continues to be a fair amount of spread in the model guidance 
tracks, with the GFS on the southwestern side of the guidance 
envelope and the ECMWF and corrected consensus, HCCA, near the 
northeastern side.  The official forecast is nudged ever so 
slightly to the right of the previous forecast based mainly on 
Priscilla's more northward motion over the past several hours.  
The NHC forecast is close to the latest ECMWF and Google DeepMind 
ensemble solutions.

Vertical wind shear appears to be abating somewhat over the system. 
Priscilla will be moving over very warm waters for the next couple 
of days and the environment looks to be quite conducive for 
strengthening.  As noted earlier, if Priscilla develops a tighter 
inner core, rapid intensification will become more likely.  The 
official intensity forecast shows significant additional 
strengthening over the next 48 hours and is in line with the latest 
corrected consensus intensity model guidance.  Steady weakening is 
likely to commence in 2-3 days due to the tropical cyclone crossing 
a sharp SST gradient and heading over cooler waters.
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1.  Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico within the watch area today.  Interests 
in the southern portion of Baja California Sur should also monitor 
the progress of Priscilla.
 
2.  Heavy rainfall associated with Priscilla will impact coastal 
sections of southwestern Mexico today, which could result in flash 
flooding, particularly in areas of higher terrain.

 3.  Swells generated by Priscilla are affecting portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico and will reach the coasts of
west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula 
today.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0900Z 17.2N 107.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 17.9N 107.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  07/0600Z 18.8N 109.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  07/1800Z 19.7N 110.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  08/0600Z 20.7N 111.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  08/1800Z 21.7N 113.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  09/0600Z 22.8N 114.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  10/0600Z 25.3N 116.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  11/0600Z 26.5N 116.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch