000
WTPZ42 KNHC 110835
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172025
200 AM MST Sat Oct 11 2025
 
The satellite presentation of Raymond has deteriorated since the 
previous advisory, with the cyclone continuing to be affected by 
moderate easterly shear, analyzed to be around 18 kt by UW-CIMSS. A 
recent scatterometer pass was helpful in identifying the center 
position and indicated a peak wind vector of 35 kt. The latest 
subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were 
3.0/45 kt and 2.0/30 kt, respectively, while the objective estimates 
from UW-CIMSS have ranged from 32 to 39 kt.  Considering these data 
and accounting for potential undersampling in the scatterometer 
winds, the initial intensity is maintained at 40 kt for this 
advisory.

Raymond continues to move quickly northwestward, or 310 degrees at 
14 kt.  A turn toward the north is expected later today as the 
cyclone moves between a longwave trough over the southwestern United 
States and a mid- to upper-level ridge over northern Mexico.  This 
general motion is forecast to continue through the weekend, with 
Raymond dissipating over the higher terrain of northern Mexico by 
late Sunday.  The new NHC track forecast has been nudged slightly 
westward during the next 12 hours to account for a delayed northward 
turn, and it remains very close to the previous prediction 
thereafter.

Raymond will continue to be influenced by moderate east to northeast 
shear and a dry mid-level environment, while also interacting with 
land, including mountainous terrain, during the next couple of days. 
These factors should result in gradual weakening.  The NHC 
intensity forecast calls for Raymond to weaken into a tropical 
depression later today or tonight, and dissipate by late Sunday. 
Regardless of how long Raymond survives, heavy rainfall is expected 
to spread into portions of Mexico and the southwestern United States 
this weekend through early next week. See the Key Messages below 
for more details.
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1.  Tropical storm conditions are expected on Las Islas Marias
for the next few hours, and in Baja California Sur beginning later
this morning.
 
2.  Heavy rainfall associated with Raymond will impact coastal 
sections of southwestern and northwestern Mexico through Sunday, 
which could result in flash flooding, particularly in areas of 
higher terrain.   Moisture from Raymond will bring the threat of 
additional heavy rains to portions of the Southwest U.S. Sunday into 
early next week.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0900Z 20.9N 109.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  11/1800Z 22.6N 110.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  12/0600Z 25.4N 110.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  12/1800Z 28.2N 110.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)