Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Valid 130100Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight.

...01z Update...

Onset of nocturnal cooling will lead to a stabilizing boundary layer
across most of the CONUS over the next few hours. Latest lightning
data supports this with a decrease in thunderstorm activity as
buoyancy weakens. Modest instability lingers across the lower
deserts of the Southwest where roughly 1000 J/kg MLCAPE is noted
along the international border of southwest AZ, but meager
instability is noted elsewhere. Even so, thunderstorms are weakening
across southern AZ, and 00z sounding from TUS was not particularly
impressive with only 6 C/km midlevel lapse rates. This yielded
around 600 J/kg MLCAPE, and further weakening is expected over the
next few hours. While gusty winds may accompany the most robust
convection early this evening, severe threat appears too low to
warrant probabilities overnight.

..Darrow.. 10/13/2025