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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Caribbean Sea (AL98):
A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea, a few
hundred miles west of the Windward Islands, is producing a large
area of poorly organized showers and thunderstorms. Recent
satellite-derived wind data indicate that the disturbance continues
to lack a closed circulation, although it is producing winds of 30
to 40 mph to the north and east of the wave axis. The system is
moving quickly westward at 20 to 25 mph, which should limit
significant development during the next day or so. Thereafter,
environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for
development as the wave slows down over the central Caribbean Sea,
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to
latter part of this week. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall
and gusty winds are expected to continue affecting portions of the
Windward and Leeward Islands this morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.



Forecaster Jelsema