000
WTNT43 KNHC 240842
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
500 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025
 
For all intents and purposes, Melissa is nearly stationary over the 
north-central Caribbean Sea.  The estimated center has been 
adjusted a bit based on scatterometer data from last evening, but 
wind direction data from buoy 42058 also suggest that the 
circulation could still be a bit elongated.  There are several deep 
convective bursts embedded within the overall cloud canopy, 
although banding features are not particularly well defined at the 
moment.  An Air Force Reserve mission should provide a more accurate 
estimate of Melissa's center location and intensity in a couple of 
hours, and for now the estimated intensity is maintained at 40 kt.

With Melissa located within a break in the mid-level ridge, the 
steering currents remain weak.  Track models suggest that some 
meandering or a slow northeast to north drift is likely to occur 
over the next 24 hours.  By Saturday, there will likely be just 
enough mid-level ridging building north of the storm to cause 
Melissa to begin moving very slowly westward, with that motion 
continuing through Tuesday.  What's most noteworthy is that several 
reliable models, including the ECMWF, HCCA, and Google DeepMind 
ensemble mean have shifted southward during this period.  The new 
NHC forecast reflects this slight shift, but it's important to note 
that several other models continue to show Melissa's center getting 
perilously close to or over Jamaica in 2-3 days.  A slow 
recurvature is forecast on days 4 and 5, with Melissa potentially 
moving near western Jamaica and approaching southeastern Cuba by 
early Wednesday.  Interestingly, the 00z ECMWF keeps Melissa south 
or southwest of Jamaica through day 5, but it appears to be an 
outlier compared to the other guidance.
 
Strong westerly shear continues to affect Melissa, but there are 
some indications that the shear could gradually decrease over the 
next 24-36 hours.  At the same time, high ocean heat content values 
and stronger upper-level divergence should help to induce 
strengthening.  There is fairly strong agreement among the 
intensity models that a period of rapid intensification could begin 
in about 24 hours, and the NHC forecast shows Melissa becoming a 
hurricane in 36 hours.  Although this is an aggressive forecast 
given Melissa's current structure, several models are even stronger 
than the NHC forecast at that forecast time.  There is less model 
agreement on Melissa's intensity after 48 hours.  In order to 
maintain continuity with previous forecasts, the NHC prediction is 
near the top end of the guidance envelope and close to the Google 
DeepMind ensemble mean.  Other models show flatlining or decreasing 
intensity after 48 hours, but that is likely due to scenarios that 
account for more land interaction.

 
Key Messages:
 
1. Jamaica:  Due to Melissa’s slow motion, the risk of a prolonged
multi-day period of potentially damaging winds, heavy rainfall
resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and numerous
landslides, and storm surge continues to increase for Jamaica.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion, since strong winds and flooding rains could begin in
Jamaica later today or on Saturday.
 
2. Haiti:  Heavy rainfall will result in catastrophic flash
flooding and landslides across southwestern Haiti by this weekend
into early next week. Extensive damage to roads and buildings is
expected, potentially isolating communities for an extended period
of time. This is a life-threatening situation and immediate
preparations to protect life and property should be taken.  Strong
winds could also potentially last for a day or more over the Tiburon
peninsula of Haiti.
 
3. Remainder of Hispaniola and Eastern Cuba: Heavy rainfall could
also produce significant, life-threatening flash flooding and
numerous landslides in southern Dominican Republic. Interests in
Cuba should monitor the progress of Melissa since the risk of heavy
rainfall, damaging winds, and storm surge appears to be increasing.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/0900Z 16.0N  75.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 16.1N  75.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 16.6N  75.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 16.9N  75.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  26/0600Z 16.9N  76.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  26/1800Z 16.9N  77.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  27/0600Z 16.9N  78.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
 96H  28/0600Z 17.6N  78.8W  125 KT 145 MPH
120H  29/0600Z 19.8N  77.9W  120 KT 140 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Berg